Summary
• Bus reliability in Greater Kuala Lumpur remains uneven, contributing to commuter distrust in bus services. Using high-frequency GTFS static and real-time data, we show that while many routes achieve acceptable punctuality scores on average, a non-trivial subset of Rapid KL bus routes exhibit large and unpredictable deviations. These deviations undermine commuters’ ability to plan daily travel and erode confidence in busses as a dependable mode of transport.
• We develop a Bus Performance Index (BPI) that integrates punctuality with the severity of service deviations. By combining on-time performance with a normalized measure of deviation magnitude, the BPI distinguishes between routes that are occasionally late, and those that fail severely when they happen to be late. This allows the index to more closely reflect commuter experience.
• MRT Feeder services consistently outperform Rapid KL bus routes both in reliability and predictability. Across the study period, MRT Feeder routes record higher BPI scores, tighter performance distributions, and near-zero collapse rates. In contrast, while the specific Rapid KL bus routes with very low scores vary from day to day and week to week, the proportion of such low-performing routes remain relatively stable over time. This pattern points to a systemic reliability issue embedded in the network.
• Meaningful near-term improvements in reliability can be achieved through targeted operational reforms, even within existing infrastructural constraints. The results point to practical interventions such as timetable recalibration using real-time data, improving real-time passenger information, and bus control strategies such as conditional transit signal priority. These measures directly address reliability failures that commuters experience today, while also strengthening the effectiveness and resilience of future infrastructural investments when capacity expansion becomes necessary.
